The Delay of Android

The Wall Street Journal is reporting on the delay of Android, something most people in the mobile community already knew or fully expected. It has been less than a year since they announced it, and only four months since a demo of a prototype of the platform on handsets. But there are key differences to Android than any other mobile platform before it… including the iPhone.

John Gruber mentioned on his blog “The problem with vaporware announcements is that what seems ‘close’ to being launched often isn’t.” The problem with this statement is I don’t think Android is vapor, it is just the nature of the mobile business. Google has a product, the handset makers and operators don’t. The looks like this is mostly because of Google, but I don’t no one really expected them to meet there initial date. I think this is more an issue of setting overly optimistic expectations and not making false promises.

You see, each Operator provisions phones differently. They have unique requirements of the handset manufacturer and/or the software developer. The problem is that many OEMs and platforms are joined at the hip—meaning the operator has to deal with a ton of variance in getting phones to market that their consumers will want. This all leads to the blight on the mobile industry of device fragmentation—which is just as expensive for Operators to deal with as it is independent developers.

The beauty of Android is to create a platform that is somewhat device agnostic. Therefore Operators and mobile developers can create applications and services for the platform and not the device. This has never really been done at the scale of Android before, simultaneously across multiple handset makers and Operators. And with so many 800lb Gorillas in the room, it is no wonder it is taking longer than expected. It would be virtually impossible to provide as much documentation and resources available to so many huge forces of nature at the same time.

Now to comparing Android to the iPhone is giving Android too much credit. The difference with the iPhone is Apple refused to bow down to the will of the Operator—that is up until recently. It is important to remember, that apart from a few restrictions the iPhone is not really a “provisioned” device. While locked to one carrier it functions more like an unlocked device, free of any mechanism to boost operator ARPU other than your monthly plan. Apple focused on creating the best possible mobile experience, from hardware to software, and invited the operators to come on board (making it difficult to gain the agreements they need to gain market share).

No Android is a completely different beast. Android is almost the complete opposite of the iPhone. I have no doubt in my mind Android will be a huge success. It is sorely needed in the mobile arena and Google has the power and cash to see it through.

Between the iPhone and Android we are seeing two totally different mobile platforms evolve at different rates. But together I believe they will completely transform the mobile (and web) industries as we know it.